These 4 States Will Decide the 2024 Election
In the 2024 presidential election, two candidates will fight against each other to secure the seat of the presidency: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Despite the whole nation voting between these two candidates, only very few voters will actually matter in this election. We have an electoral college system, meaning that some "swing states" will be more important than other states, no matter who wins the popular vote.
In this year's election, there are several key states which could have an influence on deciding the winner.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is the most important state in the presidential election. It has been a bellwether state for each presidential election in the past 16 years. Boasting a considerable 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is more likely than not going to decide the presidential election. It is currently the largest swing state in terms of electoral votes.
The state is extremely competitive with polling coming down to the wire, many of which fall under the margin of error. While Donald Trump has held an extremely slim lead over Kamala Harris in the state, it is just too small of a margin to show he is leading. The state is thus a tossup.
2. Georgia
Georgia, like Pennsylvania boasts a considerable number of electoral votes, 16. However, the state was not always a bellwether/competitive state. Ever since Ronald Reagan's landslide victories in 1980 and 1984, the state became a solid Republican state, voting for Republicans in almost every election since. However, starting in 2016 and unfolding in 2020, the state began shifting leftward. Trump performed worse in the Atlanta suburbs in 2016, reducing his margin by 2% since the previous election for any Republican, and in 2020 the suburban shifts to the left made the state competitive, no longer a red state.
Georgia voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by an extremely small margin, just a few thousand votes. thus, any shift in 2024 could be key for Trump in flipping the state. If the black vote shifts 5 points Republican, for example, Trump would win the state. Even in the polls, recent data suggests a dead heat, with Trump leading by 1 point, a very slim margin.
3. Arizona
Arizona, like Georgia, used to be a consistently Republican state. However, suburban shifts in 2016 and 2020 made the state competitive, fueled by leftward shifts in white suburban voters, mainly women. This shift carried Biden to victory over Trump in the state in 2020.
It is anyone's game in Arizona. Polling shows Trump with a lead, but by less than a point, going down to the wire. Harris will need Arizona to hold the "Blue Wall," while Trump needs it to carry himself to 270 electoral votes.
4. Wisconsin
Wisconsin, unlike other swing states, is not very large in electoral vote count, just 10. However, the state is crucial for Donald Trump to win the election as a whole.
Assuming Trump wins North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, three states which he leads in polling, by winning Wisconsin he could win the election. Also, Wisconsin is more favorable to Trump than the other swing states. Its demographics are majority white and working class, very favorable to Trump, and it voted to the right of its Rust Belt contemporaries Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, 2020, and even the 2022 midterm elections, voting a majority of Republicans to the House and Ron Johnson, a Republican, to the Senate.
Harris is leading by about 1% in the state, still very close. Trump will need to improve with working class voters across the "Driftless Area" and the WOW (Washington, Ozaukee, Waukesha) to carry himself to victory.
Other important states include Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, Michigan, and Virginia. However, these states are either lacking in electoral votes or are not close enough to be extremely competitive, with the exception of North Carolina, but given its voting history, it should more likely than not vote Republican.
